Economic Bulletin January 2019

The Economic Bulletin (EB), which is published twice per year, reviews the economic condition of Trinidad and Tobago. The EB analyses changes in economic growth, monetary aggregates, fiscal operations of the Government and the external accounts of the Trinidad and Tobago economy.

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• The global economy lost momentum in the third quarter of 2018 amid an ongoing tariff dispute between the United States and China.
   
• Indicators of domestic activity in the third quarter of 2018 suggest that a durable recovery is yet to take hold.
   
• Headline Inflation remained subdued in December 2018 in the context of stable international food prices, slow aggregate demand and tight management of liquidity.
   
• Higher energy prices supported an improved year-on-year performance in the Central Government accounts during fiscal 2017/2018.
   
• The Central Bank held the Repo rate steady in December 2018,given low inflation and a recovering economy.
   
• Labour Market conditions worsened during the fourth quarter of 2017.
   
• The foreign exchange market remained relatively tight in 2018 despite higher foreign exchange conversions from the energy sector.
   
• Gross official reserves declined in 2018.
   

The domestic economy should receive a boost in 2019 mainly due to the anticipated startup of the Angelin platform. In addition, the Government's capital programme should have positive spillover effects on the non-energy sector.  The general improvement in the domestic economy is expected to reflect favourably on the fiscal accounts in FY2018/19.