The Bank's Research Department undertakes economic and policy research on a range of economic and financial matters, providing advice to the management of the Central Bank and the Government.
Economists in the Research Department produce research and policy papers on a range of issues relevant to economic and monetary policy and also contribute to the Bank’s publications, including the Annual Economic Survey, the Monetary Policy Report, the Financial Stability Report and the Economic Bulletin. Research also collaborates with the Central Statistical Office to produce the Balance of Payments Report. Projects are produced for dissemination in a variety of settings, including seminars, local and foreign conferences, workshops, outreach programs and printed or online publications:
These include papers presented by members of the Department at research conferences and seminars worldwide, including seminars hosted by other central banks.
Research Papers Series
The aim of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Research Papers is to contribute to the literature on contemporary economic issues with a view to informing policy. These publications highlight the work of economists in the Research Department of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, as well as joint projects with other institutions.
Vol. 1 No. 1 September 2010 - S. Joseph, A. Miller, R. Mahabir, T. Harewood - The Sensitivity of Remittance Inflows to the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica
Vol. 2 No. 1 December 2011 - A. Hilaire, A. Henry, S. Dhoray-Baig, A. Ramlogan, T. Mitchell - Exploring the Benefit of Stress Testing: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
Compilation of Working Papers
This compilation of works consolidates five previously published works highlighting issues of relevance to the Bank, in the area of monetary policy. The compilation is one of two special research projects aimed at promoting publications on Central Banking and other identified issues, outlined as number 7.2 in the 23 core projects of the Bank's Strategic Plan 2016/17 - 2020/21.
Research Paper Compilation Vol. 1. 2020
This compilation of working papers is not meant to be a complete source of information and knowledge on the chosen subject matter. Indeed, the works presented in this volume focus solely on the Trinidad and Tobago’s financial system and a sub-set of questions within a vast and expanding field of financial stability research. Nonetheless, the questions discussed and evidence presented in this volume may contain useful insights that might be relevant to similar financial systems like ours. The compilation is the second special research project aimed at promoting publications on Central Banking and other identified issues, outlined as number 7.2 in the 23 core projects of the Bank's Strategic Plan 2016/17 - 2020/21.
Research Paper Compilation Vol. 2. 2021
Working Papers Series
The Working Papers series includes papers primarily authored by economists of the Research Department. The topics chosen are of interest to the authors, but are equally pertinent to the economy of Trinidad and Tobago. The aim of the Working Papers series is to stimulate discussions and comments from interested readers. Please address comments to [email protected].
WP 03/2023 May 2023 - Dhanielle Smith and Tricia Harewood - National Pensions Reform: Initial Considerations for Trinidad and Tobago
WP 02/2023 March 2023 - Karen A. Roopnarine, Timothy Woolford and Lauren Sonnylal - Exploring the Nexus between Labour Force Participation and Potential Output: Evidence from Trinidad and Tobago
WP 01/2023 March 2023 - Avinash Ramlogan and Andell Nelson - Examining the Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Climate Change in Trinidad and Tobago: The Effects of these Policies on Carbon Dioxide Emissions
WP 03/2022 October 2022 - Y. Melville and N. Persad - The Impact of Declining Central Government Transfers and Subsidies on the Household Sector: Implications for Financial Stability
WP 02/2022 October 2022 - N. Thomas and K. Duke - Domestic Banking Industry Network Analysis: The Sovereign-Bank Nexus
WP 01/2022 February 2022 - C. Garcia-Singh - The Implications of New Financial Regulations on Small Business Financing in Trinidad and Tobago.
WP 06/2021 November 2021 - A. Bobb and L. Sonnylal - The Dynamics of the Trade Balance: An Empirical Investigation of the Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-curve Hypothesis in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 05/2021 September 2021- K. Finch, C. Garcia-Singh and K. Duke - Caribbean Currency Convertibility in an Era of Central Bank Digital Currency
WP 04/2021 September 2021- K. Roopnarine, J. Spencer - Exploring the Use of Internet Searches to Predict Unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 03/2021 August 2021 - A. Dhanessar, S. Edwards and A. Ramlogan - Analysis of the Trinidad & Tobago Mutual Fund Industry Using a Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) Methodology
WP 02/2021 March 2021 - C. Garcia-Singh, N. Thomas and N. Persad - The Monetary and Financial Stability Implications of Digital Currencies
WP 01/2021 March 2021 - A. Dhanessar and T. Mitchell - Is Central Bank Communication a Complement or Substitute for Monetary Policy?
WP 03/2020 June 2020 - A. Hilaire and R. Mahabir - The Great Exchange: Rapid Demonetization in Trinidad and Tobago (PowerPoint Presentation) - Published in the Latin American Journal of Central Banking https://authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S2666143820300193
WP 02/2020 April 2020 - R. Mahabir and A. Bobb - The Impact of De-risking on Trade Financing and Remittances in the Caribbean
WP 01/2020 January 2020 - A.Bobb, L. Sonnylal, K. Thompson and R. Mahabir - Impact of the Closure of a Large Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of ArcelorMittal in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 04/2019 September 2019 - K. Roopnarine, D. Bowrin and S. Ramirez - The Impact of External Conditions on a Small Open Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Trinidad and Tobago
WP 03/2019 August 2019 - T. Mitchell - The Impact of Innovation, Competition, Risk and Regulation on Banks’ Bottom Line: A Study of the Trinidad and Tobago Banking Sector
WP 02/2019 August 2019 – Y. Melville and N. Persad - Using Reserve Requirements as a Macroprudential Tool
WP 01/2019 August 2019 – D. Smith - Public Private Partnerships in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 04/2018 September 2018 - S. Edwards and C. Garcia-Singh - Monetary and Financial Stability Policies: Complementary or Conflicting?
WP 03/2018 September 2018 - S. Edwards and T. Woolford - The Economic Impact of Energy Price Shocks on a Small Open Petroleum Economy
WP 02/2018 May 2018 - A. Ramlogan and S. Sookram - Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 01/2018 April 2018 - A. Bobb and L. Sonnylal - Assessing the Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
WP 03/2017 September 2017 – Y. Melville - Financial Cycles in Small Island Developing States: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
WP 02/2017 August 2017 - D. Ramrattan - The Ageing Problematique in Trinidad and Tobago: Preparing for the Potential Impacts
WP 01/2017 June 2017 – A. Dhanessar- An Examination of the Predictive Power of Financial Market Indicators in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 03/2016 November 2016 - A. Rahaman, R. Mahabir and M. Majid - Price Stability and Financial Stability in Trinidad and Tobago: Is there a relationship? What is the direction of the relationship?
WP 02/2016 August 2016 - A. Rahaman and R. Mahabir - Alternative Monetary Policy Rules in Trinidad and Tobago: An Analysis using a Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) Approach
WP 01/2016 August 2016 - Mahabir, Ramrattan, Rahaman - Inflation Across Different Groups in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 12/2013 April 2013 - J. Cotton, K. Finch, R. Sookraj - Measuring the Cyclically Adjusted and Structural Balances in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 11/2013 February 2013 - R. Mahabir, V. Jagessar, C. Neptune, D. Cox - Understanding Wages in a Small Open Market: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
WP 10/2013 January 2013 - T. Taylor, R. Mahabir, V. Jagessar, J. Cotton - Examining Reinvestment in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 09/2012 November 2012 - R. Mahabir, K. Primus, D. Cox, V. Jagessar, C. Neptune - Price Setting in Trinidad and Tobago: Evidence from Survey Data
WP 08/2012 September 2012 - T. Taylor, R. Mahabir, V. Jagessar, J. Cotton - Examining Foreign Direct Investment in Oil Producing Economies
WP 07/2012 September 2012 - S. Lewis, K. Thompson, K. Roopnarine, D. Cheong - Developing Central Government of Trinidad and Tobago Bond Indices
WP 06/2012 April 2012 - J. Cotton - The Buoyancy and Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues in Trinidad and Tobago (1990-2009)
WP 05/2011 November 2011 - A. Hilaire, A. Henry, S. Dhoray-Baig, A. Ramlogan, T. Mitchell - Exploring the Benefits of Stress Testing: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago
WP 04/2011 September 2011 - K. Ramlochan and T. Blake - Seasonally Adjusting Economic Time Series in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 03/2011 September 2011 - R. Mahabir - Early Signals of the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement
WP 02/2011 August 2011 - R. Mahabir and V. Jagessar - An Examination of the Import Price Transmission Mechanism in Trinidad and Tobago
WP 01/2011 June 2011 – K. A. Roopnarine and D. Ramrattan - Female Labour Force Participation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago.
These comprise mainly PowerPoint Presentations (PP) by the staff of the Research and Statistics Departments to various audiences.
Dr. Reshma Mahabir - Macro-prudential Supervision and Financial Stability - June 5-6, 2014, CGBS Conference, Hyatt Regency, Trinidad.
Governor Jwala Rambarran, Michelle Majid and Veronica Ramcharan - Resolving Sovereign Debt Distress in the Caribbean: Towards a Heavily Indebted Middle Income Country (HIMIC) Initiative - April 23-25, 2014, The 15th Annual Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies Conference, Hyatt Regency, Trinidad.
J. Cotton, Dr. Reshma Mahabir and Kevin Smith - Exploring an Industry Framework to Evaluate Competitiveness - April 23-25, 2014, The 15th Annual Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies Conference, Hyatt Regency, Trinidad.
Dr. Earl Boodoo, Dr. Reshma Mahabir and Mr. Dindial Ramrattan - Creating Multi-Indicators of Poverty: Household Budget Survey and Its Applications - April 23-25, The 15th Annual Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies Conference, Hyatt Regency, Trinidad.
Mr. Akeem Rahaman, Dr. Reshma Mahabir and Dr. Earl Boodoo - Assessing the Resilience of the Banking Sector in Trinidad and Tobago: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis - April 23-25, 2014, The 15th Annual Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies Conference, Hyatt Regency, Trinidad.
Richard Cassie - Analyzing the Sustainability of Public Sector Debt in Trinidad and Tobago - October 2-4, 2013, 45th Annual Monetary Studies Conference, Kingston, Jamaica
Deputy Governor Dr. Alvin Hilaire, Alister Noel and Michelle Francis-Pantor - The Central Bank and the Securities & Exchange Commission: Strategic Issues - October 11, 2013
Shanta Dhoray-Baig - Overview of ECLAC Workshop on Short Term Economic and Fiscal Indicators - September 23, 2013 - Discussion Seminar, Central Bank Conference Facilities
Deputy Governor Dr. Alvin Hilaire and Shanta Dhoray-Baig - Using High Frequency Economic Indicators in Trinidad and Tobago - August 29-30, UN ECLAC Workshop, Mexico City
Deputy Governor, Dr. Alvin Hilaire, Angela Henry, Krishendath Ramlochan - Macroeconomic Challenges: Linking Extractive Industries to the Wider Economy June 14, 2013
Deputy Governor - Dr. Alvin Hilaire - Regional Financial Arrangements in the Caribbean IMF Headquarters Washington, D.C. - April 17, 2013
School Lecture Series Volume 1 : Money, Monetary Policy and the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago This lecture series is structured to aid students pursuing qualifications in Economics, specifically the Caribbean Proficiency Examinations
J. Cotton - The Buoyancy of Elasticity of Non-Oil Tax Revenues in Trinidad and Tobago (1990-2009) Presentation to Conference on Revenue Management in Hydrocarbon Economics, June 22, 2012 - Hyatt Regency Hotel
A. Hilaire, A. Henry, K. Ramlochan - Dutch Disease in Trinidad and Tobago: Then and Now, Presentation to Conference on Revenue Management in Hydrocarbon Economics, June 20-22 2012- Hyatt Regency Hotel
A. Hilaire, A. Henry, S. Dhoray-Baig, A. Ramlogan, T. Mitchell - Exploring the Benefits of Stress Testing: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago, Discussion Seminar November 9, 2011 held at Central Bank Conference Facilities
K. Roopnarine and D. Ramrattan - Female Labour Force Participation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago, World Association of Sustainable Development, 9th International Conference, USA October 2011
A. Hilaire and J. Cotton - Public Private Partnerships, Seminar November 1, 2011 hosted by Canadian High Commission at Hyatt
A. Hilaire - A Clear Direction: Progressive Credit Union, 24th Annual General Meeting
A. Hilaire – Business Cycle Dynamics in Trinidad and Tobago: Conference on the Economy, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine
V. Jagessar – The Research Department: A Cornerstone of the Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago: CBTT Vacation Internship Programme, Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
V. Jagessar – Developing the MSME Sector: A Little goes a Long Way!: Duke Engage Program, Conference Facilities, Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago
A. Hilaire – Legacies of the Global Recession: RBTT/RBC Meeting, Trinidad and Tobago
D. Stoddard and N. Lezama – Understanding Economic Indicators: What Every Businessman should Know: Employers’ Consultative Association Breakfast Workshop, Crown Plaza Hotel and Conference Centre, Port of Spain
A. Hilaire – Trends in the Global Economy: Conference on the Economy, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine
These include articles primarily written by Research staff in publications such as the Economic Bulletin and elsewhere.
Jul 2013: K. Thompson, R. Cassie and J. Cotton - The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Fiscal Accounts and Public Sector Debt in Trinidad and Tobago.: Economic Bulletin Volume XV No.2
Jan 2011: K. Primus, V. Jagessar, D. Cox and R. Mahabir – What Accounts for Food Price Inflation in Trinidad and Tobago in Recent Years?: Economic Bulletin Vol XIII No.1
Jan 2011: T. Mitchell and R. Sookraj – Weighted Average Interest Rates on New Loans: Economic Bulletin Vol XIII No.1
Jul 2010: K. Ramlochan – Measuring Capacity Utilization in the Manufacturing Sector of Trinidad and Tobago: Economic Bulletin Vol XII No.2
Jul 2010: K. Finch, D. Cox in collaboration with the Energy Chamber – The Energy Commodity Price Index: Economic Bulletin Vol XII No.2
Nov 2007: J. Cotton - Fiscal Measures in the 2007 to 2008 Budget: Economic Bulletin Vol IX No. 3
Nov 2006: J. Cotton – Fiscal Measures in the 2006 to 2007 Budget: Economic Bulletin Vol VIII No.3
May 2004: S. Ramirez – HIPC Assistance from Trinidad and Tobago: A Creditor's Perspective: Economic Bulletin Vol VI No.1
Nov 2004: L. De Vignes and V. Prasad – Rebasing of the QGDP Index: Economic Bulletin Vol VI No. 2 & 3
Nov 2004: J. Cotton – Fiscal Measures in the 2004 to 2005 Budget: Economic Bulletin Vol VI No. 2 & 3
Staff External Publications
These include articles authored by economists of the Research Department on topics that are of interests to the authors, but are equally pertinent to the economy of Trinidad and Tobago. These papers are publishes in external journals.
Mahabir, Reshma and Dindial Ramrattan (2015) - "Influences on the gender wage gap of Trinidad and Tobago: An economic concept or a social construct?", World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp.140 - 151
Mahabir, Reshma, Keyra Primus, Vishana Jagessar, Delvin Cox and Crystal Neptune (2013) - "Price Setting Behaviour in Firms: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago". Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, Vol. 8 No. 1, pgs. 54-78.
Roopnarine, Karen, and Dindial Ramrattan (2012) - Female Labour Force Participation: the Case of Trinidad and Tobago. World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development, Vol. 8 No. 2/3, pgs. 183-193.
Mahabir, Reshma and Vishana Jagessar (2011) - Price Rigidity: The Case of Trinidad & Tobago (pgs. 55-89) in Price Rigidity Formation and Inflation Dynamics in The Caribbean, Edited by Roland Craigwell, Winston Moore and DeLisle Worrell.
Primus, Keyra and Reshma Mahabir (2011) - "An Empirical Analysis of the Inflation Targeting Framework in a Time of Financial and Economic Crisis". Journal of Business, Finance and Economics in Emerging Economies, Vol. 6, No.1, pgs. 136-159.