The outbreak of war between the United States (US), Israel and Iran, and its subsequent escalation to involve other Gulf States, added further downside risks to the projected trajectory for global economic activity in 2026. While it remains too early to assess the global economic impact, in early March 2026 the International Monetary Fund reported disruptions to trade, spikes in energy prices and volatile financial markets as a result of the conflict. Revisions to global economic projections are therefore anticipated.